5/7/2023 0 Comments Decisions decisions![]() This is something members of the European Parliament should think about. The researchers concluded that the ability of bees to identify quickly the best site depends on the interplay of bees' interdependence in communicating the whereabouts of the best site and their independence in confirming this information. Conversely, computerised bees that blindly followed the waggle dances of others without first checking whether the site was, in fact, as advertised, led to a swift but mistaken decision. By tinkering around with it they found that computerised bees that were very good at finding nesting sites but did not share their information dramatically slowed down the migration, leaving the swarm homeless and vulnerable. The decision is remarkably reliable, with the bees choosing the best site even when there are only small differences between two alternatives.īut exactly how do bees reach such a robust consensus? To find out, Dr List and his colleagues made a computer model of the decision-making process. The process eventually leads to a consensus on the best site and the swarm migrates. After a while, other scouts start to visit the sites advertised by their compatriots and, on their return, also perform more waggle dances. The longer the dance, the better the site. Among the bees that depart are scouts that search for the new nest site and report back using a waggle dance to advertise suitable locations. The queen goes off with about two-thirds of the worker bees to live in a new home leaving a daughter queen in the nest with the remaining worker bees. In a study reported in a special issue of the Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, researchers led by Dr List looked at colonies of honeybees ( Apis mellifera), which in late spring or early summer divide once they reach a certain size. This is what bees do, and they do it rather well, according to Christian List of the London School of Economics, who has studied group decision-making in humans and animals along with Larissa Conradt of the University of Sussex, in England. People then have to evaluate the information before making a collective decision. But things become more complicated when information is shared before a vote is taken. ![]() Moreover, the probability of a correct decision increases with the size of the jury. ![]() If each member of a jury has only partial information, the majority decision is more likely to be correct than a decision arrived at by an individual juror. Making Decisions offers an invaluable guide for those who want a better framework for developing, explaining and implementing new ideas.Animals that live in groups make two sorts of choices: consensus decisions in which the group makes a single collective choice, as when house-hunting rock ants decide where to settle and combined decisions, such as the allocation of jobs among worker bees.Ĭondorcet's theory describes consensus decisions, outlining how democratic decisions tend to outperform dictatorial ones. Decision-making is revealed as a creative enterprise, not a reductive system. Sharing for the first time the tools he introduced as England selector, Smith’s book captures the immediacy of life at the sharp end, while also exploring frameworks from the top levels of sports, business and the arts. Whatever the power of data, humans aren’t finished yet. This is a truth that the most successful people know: data cannot account for everything, it must be harnessed with human insight. The best decisions, Smith argues, rely on a combination of differing kinds of intelligence: from algorithms to intuition. Making Decisions reveals Smith’s unique approach to finding success in a fast-changing and increasingly data-reliant world. During his three-year tenure, England averaged 7 wins in every 10 completed matches, better than they have performed before or since. How do you make good decisions amid a tidal wave of information? And how can you improve?Īs chief selector for the England cricket team, Ed Smith pioneered new methods for building successful teams and watched his decisions tested in real time on the pitch.How do you turn a team’s performance around?.How do you spot the opportunities that others miss?. ![]() ![]() ‘An absolutely fascinating book’ THE GAME, The Times football pod For fans of Matthew Syed, this is a great sports book about leadership, judgement and decision-making – rooted in the theory that helped Ed Smith lead England cricket to sustained success. ![]()
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